Moody’s Investors Service (Moody’s) has assigned for the first time a A1 long-term issuer rating and a BAA1 Baseline Credit Assessment to Qatar General Electricity & Water Corporation (Kahramaa). The outlook is stable.

The agency revealed in its assessment that the long-term rating of Kahramaa supports the low risks of electricity and water distribution activities, as a government corporation is the owner and the sole operator of the system of transmission and distribution of electricity and water in Qatar, in addition to the strong financial performance of the corporation, Kahramaa said in a statement.

Moody’s expected that the demand for electricity will increase by about 5 percent and water by about 4 percent annually during the next five years, in light of the overall development taking place in the country, with Kahramaa’s ability to fulfill its obligations towards meeting the growing growth in the demand for electricity and water in light of what it implemented electricity network expansion projects in Qatar and the major strategic Water Security Mega Reservoirs Project.

President of the Qatar General Electricity and Water Corporation (Kahramaa) Eng. Essa bin Hilal Al Kuwari said: “This high evaluation reflects the success of Kahramaa’s plans based on financial sustainability. It also confirms the strong financial performance achieved by the Kahramaa, in light of the high rating of the Qatari economy and the support and direction of our wise government, which Moody’s relied upon when Kahramaa was rated.”

He added that Moody’s high rating for the first time for Kahramaa puts us in front of a new commitment, which is to continue to work to enhance financial sustainability and continue to improve operating efficiency and rationalise costs across the organization’s operations by adopting a number of initiatives.

Al Kuwari noted that Kahramaa’s distinguished performance in the financial aspect with the success of the corporation in fulfilling its obligations in providing sustainable and high-quality electricity and water and its role as a key partner in the development projects witnessed by Qatar

Moody’s has also awarded Kahramaa a basic credit rating of ‘baa1’.

The agency also suggested that the internal financial flows of the corporation be sufficient to cover the expected investments during the coming period, which the agency estimated during the next five years to be about QR30bn, noting that Kahrama’s liquidity is sufficient with expected cash.

Qatar Stock Exchange’s (QSE) benchmark index gained 210.47 points, or 2.07 percent, last week, when the bourse closed yesterday at 10,358.35 points.

Trading value during last week decreased by 50.99 percent to reach QR1.11bn compared to QR2.26bn at the end of previous week.

Trading volume decreased by 4.54 percent to reach 361.44 million shares, as against 378.61 million shares, while the number of transactions fell by 20.52 percent, to reach 31,235 transactions as compared to 39,298 transactions.

Market cap rose by 1.99 percent to reach QR573.35bn as compared to QR562.18bn at the end of previous week, reports QNA.

Banking and Financial Services sector led traded value last week with 55.51 percent of the total traded value. Industries sector accounted for 16.28 percent. Telecoms sector accounted for 8.62 percent and Consumer Goods and Services sector accounted 6.30 percent.

Banking and Financial Services sector led traded volume last week with 33.38 percent of the total traded volume. Industries sector accounted for 29.17 percent. Real Estate sector accounted for 15.22 percent and Consumer Goods and Services sector accounted 8.32 percent.

Banking and Financial Services sector led traded number of transactions last week with 42.21 percent of the total number of transactions. Industries sector accounted for 24.50 percent. Telecom sector accounted for 12.96 percent and Real Estate sector accounted for 6.36 percent. From the 46 listed companies 26 ended last week higher, while 16 fell and four remained unchanged.

QNB led traded value during last week accounted for 28.53 percent of the total traded value. Qatar International Islamic Bank (QIIB) accounted for 7.71 percent and Ooredoo accounted 7.12 percent.

When compared on daily basis, the QSE index gained 86.24 points, or 0.84 percent, yesterday compared to Wednesday’s closing. The volume of shares traded decreased to 84.30 million from 102.03 million on Wednesday and the value of shares decreased to QR237.47m from QR375.27m on Wednesday.

From the 49 companies listed on QSE, shares of 44 saw trading yesterday. From these, 27 companies gained, 11 closed lower, while shares of 6 companies remaining unchanged.

Indices of five sectors ended in green zone and two sectors in red zone today. QSE Total Return Index gained 0.84 percent to 19,060.25 points. QSE Al Rayan Islamic Index increased 0.58 percent to 3,958.07 points and QSE All Share Index added 0.79 percent to 3,060.84 points.

TUNIS:  Tunisia’s designated prime minister Habib Jemli expects to pull together a new coalition government next week after an election in October produced a fractured parliament.

Since the 2011 revolution that overthrew the autocracy and introduced democratic rule, most economic indicators have weakened and the state has fallen further into debt.

Economists say a strong government with a clear economic vision is essential to continue efforts to stabilise state finances and address the frustrations which threaten to undermine trust in the young democracy’s politics.

HOW BAD ARE THE NUMBERS?

Economic growth, averaging 4.7% in the decade to 2010, has averaged 1.8% since then, World Bank figures show.

The uprising hit Tunisia’s tourism industry and created intense pressure for the new democracy to create public sector jobs, raise pay and increase subsidies.

Tunisia recorded a primary surplus in 2010, with a net deficit of just 1%. Since then, government debt has climbed from 41% of gross domestic product to more than 70%.

The government expects a deficit this year of 3.9% of GDP, down from 7.4% of GDP in 2016, 6% in 2017 and 4.5% last year.

The national current account declined, foreign currency reserves fell, the exchange rate for the dinar dropped and inflation rose to more than 7% in 2017, and was still 6.5% in September.

WHAT IS THE IMPACT ON TUNISIANS?

Unemployment, 12% before the revolution, is now 15% nationally but far worse in Tunisia’s impoverished interior, where it exceeds 30% in some cities.

Tourism was just starting to recover in 2015 when militants killed scores of foreign visitors in two attacks, sending the sector back into collapse.

Visitor numbers only returned to their earlier levels this year but the collapse of Thomas Cook in September showed how vulnerable Tunisia remains to any sudden shock in the sector.

WHAT ARE THE OTHER PROBLEMS?

A sudden surge in hiring by state-owned companies after the revolution contributed to a steep decline in both their performance and profitability. Their losses cost the government $2 billion last year.

The state phosphate company contributed 10% of Tunisian exports before 2011 but only 4% now. It is located in a poor region and the post-revolution government increased its workforce by 21,000 people to 30,000.

Tunis Air, which has 8,000 staff for only 27 planes, has been losing money since the revolution. It said last week it would lay off 400 jobs next year.

However the powerful UGTT union has resisted many such reforms and says other problems such as corruption and mismanagement should be addressed first.

Well-connected private businesses also dominate in some sectors, acting like cartels and leaving smaller businesses unable to raise financing for investment, diplomats say.

WHAT HAS THE STATE TRIED SO FAR?

Tunisia is half way through a $2.8 billion International Monetary Fund (IMF) loan programme, which began in 2016.

The IMF required the government to rein in spending, especially on public sector wages which doubled in cost to about 16 billion dinars ($5.5 billion) in 2018 from 7.6 billion dinars in 2010, and on subsidies.

Its fuel price rises in March were the fifth in a year, and increases are expected to resume.

However the spending cuts, though adding to the public frustrations that led voters to punish coalition partners in October’s election, failed to meet deficit reduction targets.

WHAT NEXT?

The foreign lenders who finance Tunisia’s deficit expect it to deepen its spending cuts – an unpopular and potentially difficult process for the next coalition government.

However, any structural reforms to reduce bureaucracy, improve the performance of government departments and services, and cut corruption would strengthen the business climate and could raise income.

President Kais Saied, an independent elected in October, has already pushed several anti-corruption programmes, something that could help the new government win support for less appealing policies.

In June 2019, we noted that Brexit uncertainty has been a persistent drag on the UK economy since the June 2016 referendum when the UK narrowly voted to “Leave” the EU rather than “Remain” in the EU. In that article we and anticipated that a general election, or second referendum, would be necessary.

The outlook for economic growth is one of the main determinants of the strength of a currency. The British pound (GBP) fell sharply after the 2016 referendum and remains 17 percent below the average of the previous 5 years . This illustrates the market concern about the negative impact of Brexit on the outlook for the UK economy.

Since our last article, Boris Johnson has taken over as the British Prime Minister (PM) and renegotiated the deal with the EU on the Withdrawal Agreement. However, he was unable to push it through the British Parliament by the 31 October deadline. After losing numerous votes in Parliament, PM Johnson was forced to request a further extension of the Brexit deadline to the 31 January 2020.

The hardest form that Brexit could take is often referred to as “No-deal”, whereas remaining in the EU is effectively the softest form of Brexit. PM Johnson’s deal with the EU on the Withdrawal Agreement implies a harder Brexit than most of the options being considered during the summer of 2019.

That alone would imply a weaker outlook for the UK economy and British currency (GBP). However, GBP has rallied 7 percent since early October 2019 when PM Johnson failed to push his deal through Parliament and called a general election to be held on the 12 December 2019. In our view, much of the “No-deal” tail risk was priced out of both FX spot and options markets.

The Conservatives and Labour parties have dominated British politics for many years. However, fractures into “Leave” and “Remain” camps run through both main parties, making future voting patterns less predictable than ever. The main parties have different views for Brexit. So we consider three scenarios.

First, if a Conservative government were to be elected with a workable majority, then Brexit would move forward faster, with PM Johnson’s deal likely to be passed soon after the election.

Second, if a Labour government came to power, then PM Corbyn would attempt to renegotiate a new Withdrawal Agreement. He would then call for a second referendum, which would prolong uncertainty but also open up a path to “Remain”.

Third, the election may result in a hung parliament or weak minority government, barely able to forge a coalition. While this would raise the possibility of a second referendum, it could also bring “No-deal” back on the table and prolong uncertainty.

Back in June, opinion polls suggested that a general election would lead to a hung parliament with Labour as the largest party. However, the most recent opinion polls are indicating a clear majority for the Conservatives. Indeed, the latest prediction by pollster YouGov is that the Conservative party would win 359 seats and deliver PM Johnson a working majority of 68.

PM Johnson’s promise to “Get Brexit Done” is a powerful slogan for the election. However, a trade deal with the EU could not be discussed before a Withdrawal Agreement is implemented and will likely be even more difficult to negotiate. Therefore trade negotiations and Brexit uncertainty are likely to drag on well beyond the December 2020 deadline set by PM Johnson in all three scenarios.

DOHA: Qatar’s Monthly Producer Price Index (PPI) for October 2019 was estimated at 59.5 points, showing a decrease of 3.1 percent compared to the previous month’s PPI. When compared on year-on-year basis, the PPI of October, 2019 showed a decrease of 22.4 percent compared to the PPI of corresponding month last year (October 2018), official data released by Planning and Statistics Authority (PSA) show.

The producer price index covers goods relating to “Mining” (weight: 72.7 percent), “Manufacturing” (weight: 26.8 percent), and “Electricity & Water” (weight: 0.5 percent) with the base year prices of 2013.

The PPI of October 2019 for the Mining sector showed a decrease of 3.8 percent compared with PPI of September 2019, primarily due to the decrease of “Crude petroleum and natural gas” prices by 3.8 percent. PPI of October 2019, when compared with its counterpart in previous year (October 2018), there has been a decrease of 24.1 percent.

In the Manufacturing sector, a decrease of 2.1 percent has been recorded in October 2019, when compared with the previous month’s Manufacturing index (September 2019). The prices decrease was seen in “Basic Metals” by 3.1 percent, followed by “Refined Petroleum products” by 2.6 percent, and “Rubber and Plastics products” by 1.1 percent, and “Basic Chemicals” by 0.9 percent. However, the increasing prices are noticed in: “Paper and Paper products” by 1.0 percent, followed by “Cement and Other non-metallic products” by 0.8 percent, “Juices”, “Dairy products”, and “Beverages” by 0.7 percent each, and “Grain mill and Other products” by 0.1 percent. No changes noticed in “Other chemical products and fibers”.

On year on year, (October 2018), “Manufacturing” PPI of October 2019 showed a decrease of 19.3 percent. The major groups which explain this price fall are: “Refined Petroleum products” by 22.6 percent, “Basic chemicals” by 15.8 percent, “Basic Metals” by 13.0 percent, and “Cement and Other non-metallic products” 2.3 percent, “Other chemical products and fibers” by 0.2 percent, and “Grain mill and other products” by 0.1 percent. However, prices increased in “Juices” by 3.1 percent, followed by “Beverages”, and “Paper and Paper Products” by 2.6 percent each, “Dairy products” by 1.8 percent, and “Rubber and Plastics products” by 0.7 percent.